Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Trust & Risk

There is a relation between trust and risk, but not in this order.  Risk precedes, trust follows.  Trust is established upon experience.  Where there is no experience, there is only risk.  The more that is known the greater confidence of outcome, the greater trust. 


Trust is specific.  Risk is general.  We have confidence that a trusted thing will produce an expected outcome, but for risk we must take into account all relevant contributions.  We consider what is knowable when considering risk, and what is known when acting out of trust.


Trust increases with each relevant moment, while risk diminishes as experience accumulates.  For risk there is only decrease, until new types are discovered or new states appear within the known, by this I refer to novelty of circumstance.


Trust is measured, risk is what is not measured:  [0,1).

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